Faculty Mentor: Shane Macfarlan (Anthropology, University of Utah)

 

ABSTRACT

Climate-induced droughts have been occurring with increasing frequency, significantly impacting global livestock managers. This study assesses the effects of the 2020 to 2022 drought in Baja California Sur, Mexico, through semi-structured interviews with 98 rural ranchers. This research seeks to examine both the effects of the drought and the adaptive strategies employed by ranchers. Understanding their responses to environmental stressors is crucial for informing efforts to increase community resiliency.

INTRODUCTION

Climate-induced droughts are becoming increasingly more frequent worldwide. As these droughts increase in occurrence, the risk of them lasting for years or decades, known as multi-year droughts, also rises (Chen et al., 2025). These drought events cause major ecological impacts, affecting livestock managers globally. Climate change disasters disproportionately affect the rural poor, as their livelihoods are dependent on the land (Hoover & Smith, 2025; Hansen et al., 2019).

Agriculturalists have had to adapt to increasing climate shocks, such as droughts, by developing strategies to reduce risk. A primary method of adaptation is diversification. This is mainly observed in the diversification of income sources, often involving a shift in labor towards other pursuits outside of the farm or ranch (Barret, Reardon, & Webb, 2001). Other strategies include liquidating assets, varying herd compositions, or diversifying feed sources (Macfarlan et al., 2023).

In Baja California Sur, Mexico, traditional ranching families rely on livestock grazing as both a cultural practice and primary livelihood. These ranchers operate in arid landscapes, making them particularly vulnerable to prolonged drought (Macfarlan et al., 2023). This research examines the impact of a severe drought event that occurred from 2020 to 2022 on traditional ranchers in Baja California Sur and the adaptive strategies they employed in response. These findings are significant for understanding the social and ecological limits faced by these communities during drought conditions and to inform policymakers to help increase community resilience.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 98 ranching households by a team that included researchers from local NGOs (Pro Natura and Conserva Loreto), local ranchers, and officials from the University of Utah. The interviews took place between April and May 2024 and included participants from all five municipalities in the state. The interview data was compiled and analyzed by student researchers at the University of Utah during the Fall 2024 semester, and descriptive statistics were generated using Stata.

STUDY SITE

Baja California Sur is characterized by an arid desert environment and is part of the North American Arid West. The state can be divided into three geographic regions: the Cabo region, the Southern Sierra de La Giganta, and the Northern Sierra de La Giganta. It receives very little rainfall and has few freshwater sources, relying on tropical cyclones during late summer and fall to replenish rivers, desert springs, and aquifers. Baja California Sur has been experiencing a prolonged drought, with the period from 2020 to 2022 reaching extreme severity, marking one of the worst droughts in its history (Macfarlan et al., 2024). In September 2022, Hurricane Kay brought significant rainfall, and Hurricane Norma made landfall in October 2023 as the latest tropical cyclone to affect the peninsula (National Hurricane Center).

In the arid environment of Baja California Sur, humans have learned to adapt, leading to the emergence of a ranching tradition that is an integral part of the local culture and considered the longest living tradition in the state. While Mexico is typically associated with indigenous peoples or mestizaje, Baja California Sur is the only state without a federally recognized living indigenous group. This is because indigenous groups native to the region, specifically the Cochimi, Guaycura, and Pericu, have disappeared in the aftermath of the colonization and settlement of the peninsula. The current indigenous population in Baja California Sur largely consists of individuals from mainland Mexico, while ranchers are primarily of Euro-American descent. The ecological knowledge held by traditional ranchers has been passed down through generations (Macfarlan 2022; 2024). These ranchers are subsistence pastoralists, meaning they raise livestock primarily for personal use. Goats and cattle are the most common types of livestock raised. Most ranchers do not operate their ranches as commercial enterprises, and selling is usually confined to local farmers’ markets.

Figure 1. Map of Baja California Sur, Mexico, Showing Locations of Ranches Interviewed.

RESULTS

Rancher interviews were conducted across three regions of Baja California Sur: 31 in the Cabo region, 37 in the Southern Sierra de La Giganta, and 30 in the Northern Sierra de La Giganta.

Ninety-eight percent of ranchers reported that their households were affected by the drought. Regarding herd composition, 15 ranchers had only goat herds, 24 had only cattle herds, and 59 had mixed herds.

Ranchers depend on the local ecology for their livestock to graze on during the rainy season. However, during the dry season, they buy feed to supplement their animals’ diets. Alfalfa is the most commonly purchased feed source, followed by concentrate, which is a nutrient-dense supplement. Additionally, a few ranchers reported buying bran (5 ranchers), wheat (2 ranchers), or corn (1 rancher). Feeding habits vary based on herd composition; for instance, cattle require more feed, particularly alfalfa, compared to goats. Ranchers were asked how many units of feed they purchased over a 15-day period. The average units of feed purchased were calculated by herd type and drought conditions, along with the percentage increase from the average during the dry season to the average during drought conditions (Table 1).

Table 1. Average Units of Feed Purchased by Herd Type & Drought Conditions.

Herd Type	Dry Season	Drought Conditions	Percentage Increase
Goat Herds	11 units	20 units	82%
Cattle Herds	27 units	32 units	19%
Mixed Herds	21 units	30 units	43%

Ninety percent of ranchers have reported that they have not seen significant recovery in their herd size, and 93 percent have reported they have not experienced substantial economic recovery. Additionally, 72 percent are concerned that a future drought could force them to leave their ranches. Ranchers estimate they can endure another two to three years of prolonged drought conditions before they will be forced to abandon their ranches.

Ranchers were asked, “If there were something that could change today to improve your life, what would it be?” Responses were open-ended and organized into six thematic categories: 34 ranchers reported a need for diversified employment sources, 31 for improved infrastructure, 14 for government assistance, 14 for natural forces (e.g., rain), 2 for natural protections, and 1 for improved general infrastructure. When asked specifically about potential avenues for diversified employment, 90 percent expressed interest in working in tourism projects, and 97 percent reported interest in conservation work.

DISCUSSION

Ranchers are able to manage normal dry seasons, but they are not prepared to navigate multi-year droughts. During droughts, the lack of natural fodder for livestock necessitates that ranchers purchase significantly more feed than normal to sustain their animals. This especially affects goat herders, as they depend less on purchased feed and allow their goats to graze freely. To manage the financial burden of purchasing feed, ranchers had to employ various strategies. According to previous interviews conducted in the region, many had to sell their assets (e.g., their cars), obtain loans, usually informal ones from friends or family with fewer receiving loans from banks, or use their savings if they had any. For some ranchers, either they or a family member had to find employment in urban areas to supplement household income.

Ranching is the oldest living tradition in Baja California Sur, making it critical to improve the resilience of these communities to drought in order to preserve their cultural heritage. This is especially urgent given that droughts are projected to become longer, drier, and hotter. Ranchers believe they can withstand two to three more years of extended drought before they may be forced to abandon ranching altogether, which could ultimately threaten the survival of ranching culture itself.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The primary need identified is the diversification of employment sources, making it the primary recommendation. Providing these opportunities would give ranchers a stable income to support both their ranches and households. One potential avenue for diversification is ecotourism, which presents sustainable alternatives to mass tourism in Baja California Sur. For instance, ranchers could host visitors for activities such as nature tours, goat milking, or other cultural immersion experiences. Another potential employment opportunity is in conservation efforts, which could involve conducting plant and wildlife surveys, working in land management, or supporting sustainable resource use.

Improving agricultural infrastructure could further support ranchers. A significant development would be the construction of facilities for growing and storing feed for livestock. This could help offset the costs associated with purchasing feed. It would be especially beneficial for ranchers living far from marketplaces, as it would reduce the need for long-distance travel to buy feed.

Another consideration is improving access to support services to better the overall well-being of households. This could include providing assistance with electricity, healthcare, or food. Such support could help alleviate some of the hardships faced by ranching families, making it easier for them to sustain their livelihoods and continue living on their ranches.

CONCLUSION

The severe drought event from 2020 to 2022 had a profound impact on the ecology and ranching communities in Baja California Sur. These ranchers faced considerable hardships and are still struggling to recover. To cope with the extreme drought conditions, they have learned to diversify their income and feed sources. However, these adaptive strategies have limitations, and ongoing support is essential for helping ranching communities sustain their livelihoods in the face of increasing droughts. Strengthening resilience through improved support is critical for preserving both the livelihoods of the people and the ranching culture of Baja California Sur.

Acknowledgements

Thank you to my fellow members of the Macfarlan Lab Group: Gracyn Hinojosa, Izzy Akers, Sofia Price, Abby Swanson, Jackie Helm, Daxton Sorensen, Riley Cummings, and Caleb Kensinger. I also thank Pro Natura Noroeste, Conserva Loreto, and Dr. Sula Vanderplank for their collaboration on this project, as well as Innovaciones Alumbra for providing project funding. Many thanks to the Wilkes Center for Climate Science and Policy for supporting student researchers through the Wilkes Scholars Program. I extend my sincerest gratitude to the ranching families of Baja California Sur for sharing their experiences and collaborating on this research

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